Crash Market Stocks - Financial Tips On Making Money In The Stock Market

I am sure by now, most of you are getting weary of the endless political posts on all of your social network walls.  Election season is in full swing and as a byproduct, we get a very stagnant, unpredictable stock market.

This election, more so than past, especially has created a debate among Wall Street as to how the market will respond.  Most energy and manufacturing prefer Obama.  Investment and banks want Romney.  Either way, whomever does get elected is sure to cause some volatility in the markets for a short time.  This should stabilize going into 2013.

Regardless of the outcome of the election, there are still 3 main economic factors that success in equity markets hinge on.  They are:

EUROPE HANGS ON

Many believe that credit turmoil in Europe has already been factored into our markets.  I strongly disagree.  We continue to prove that we make investment decisions in a very "reactionary" process.  If credit defaults began to occur in Europe, you better believe this will hit home and strong.  There is nothing worse for the US than a big reminder of what carrying a lot of debt can do to an economy.  To keep a favorable trading market, we need Europe to hang on.

UNEMPLOYMENT

The topic that is on everyone's mind, except that it has been the topic of political discussion.  There is a reason why both candidates focus so much on it.  There is not a more influential stat that is reported than the Unemployment rate.  Most people can't tell you what our GDP growth was this past quarter, what the Treasuries are trading at, or even what current interest rates are at.  However, most know the current national unemployment rate.  It's all fun and games until you lose your job...  This directly effects investor sentiment.  We have been slowly pecking away at it, but we need some acceleration.  This last month, we saw a drop in the rate, but only because of people actual "leaving the workforce" and no longer looking for work.  We added less than 100,000 new jobs, which won't cut it.  Unemployment is the weight dragging behind market momentum, continually slowing it.

ACTION FROM THE FED

Time and time again we see the Fed pop in just when things are about to get real scary.  After the most recent employment report, reports have been buzzing with the rumors of another stimulus in the works.  Despite what the outcome of the stimulus might be, history has proven that markets love a stimulus.  Though it may be short lived, we usually enjoy a nice little bump across the board.

This season of trading will keep you on your toes.  The election is looking to be a close one and many are sitting back and waiting, including Wall Street.  Keep your tabs on the above influences as they can greatly sway markets one way or the other.  Happy Trading.

Thank you for your patience as I continue to try to find time to give updates on the site. Thanks to everyone who has reached out to make sure I am still alive, haha! All is well, and hopefully I get the opportunity to converse with many of you.

As for an update, I am pursing my MBA and am enjoying the opportunity to dig even deeper into financial markets and strategies. I have been lucky to work closely with faculty and staff who have extensive experience in portfolio trading and a long resume in market studies. It has been very interesting digging into market efficiency and really looking at the data and concluding if abnormal gains in investing can be accomplished and repeated and how... The results are very interesting. I will be sharing a variety of strategies and portfolio theory that we find and study with all of you as well as implementing these strategies in my account and sharing them with you.

Markets have continued to act unique this past year as it has since 2008. However, we are still finding many existing and new strategies are finding a lot of success in current trading environments. There are a variety of new portfolio strategies in today's market that allow for diversifying against non-systematic risk in portfolios. We are also seeing momentum trumping several past fundamental valuation methods.

The past two years, we have seen just exactly why fallen Angels small cap stocks are the optimal choice for portfolios rather than value growth stocks. Rebounds in companies such as Las Vegas Sands, Citi, and Wynn show just how profitable being 0n the right side of these rebounds can be.

I am excited to reignite some passion with the readers of this site... I look forward to some great gains and strategies for this year and hopefully we can share in the success that the markets are sure to bring this year. Happy Trading!

It is the week of all weeks for retailers. In fact, I find it comical to browse around online retailers to see that the norm has now become "Black Friday Week." Retailers are riding the black friday train as long as they can. Some, like Amazon, keep the party going a whole week after. For many, 40-50% of their profits will be earned in the next two months. That can be a big gamble if consumers are tightening spending a bit, which recent data is showing.

It is continually the big elephant in the room. On one hand, because of China, interest rates continue to remain at record low levels due to the large supply of treasuries they continue to buy (and the Fed). On the other hand, China's aggressive currency valuation and manufacturing is definitely starting to be felt in US businesses and has been for quite some time. So what is the answer?

Yesterday, President Obama announced that the US would be beefing up the military presence in Northern Australia, that man believe sends a message to China that the US still owns the Pacific.

Recently, I have been able to get two sides of the story as well as two perspectives and how we should go forward with our relationship with China.

First, I attended a presentation given by Joshua Cooper Ramo of Kissinger Associates, who has been nearly a diplomat of China and has lived there for over 10 years. He has recently written a book called "The Age of the Unthinkable," which talks about China in more detail.

Essentially, Ramo talks about the rising power of China and how, because of the population and buying power of the upcoming middle class, a mutual beneficial relationship cannot be ignored. He addressed many of the concerns and preconceived prejudices that many Americans have of China, as well as tried to dive into the culture of China and why they react a certain way to things.

Ramo feels that the next generation of China brings much more diversity and "free thinking" than does the current Communist party. He feels that as China continues to accept capitalistic companies into the country and with the help of social media, these barriers will continue to break down. He feels that if the US can make a mutual relationship work with China, it will be the best decision the US ever made.

However, there are always two sides to a story.

Next, I have listened to the words of Peter Navarro, a professor of Finance at The University of California Irvine and the author of the book, "Death by China." In this book, Navarro breaks down the manipulation and fraud of Chinese leaders in which directly effects both the health and economic well being of the US. He talks of the hacking, spies, and theft that occurs daily as well as the military threat as China continues to build their forces.

He also discusses the fault of the government for allowing many of the problems to happen. China allows almost no imports into the country, but exports more than half of the world's goods. Many factories in Detroit, Chicago, and Kansas City have been closed down and replaced with factories in China.

Navarro believes that unless something is done to regulate how China conducts business, especially within the US, we will suffer many consequences, as will our children.

You decide. How does the US go forward with their relationship with China? The fact of the matter is, that China does hold the largest middle class population and will have only more consumer buying power in years to come. As China continues to develop and become more urbanized, without a debt there will be extremely large opportunities there. The question is will US companies be able to take advantage of it. Some already have. This is why I continue to be bullish in Chinese companies. Happy Trading.

Republicans and Democrats are not the only people drawing lines in the sand and not wanting to budge. We are seeing a pretty divided stance on the near term movement of markets. I have been to several economic forecast meetings in which very highly respected economists discuss their near term outlook of the economy and it surprises me that I have heard many different stories from all of them.

This perfectly explains the volatility of the markets. In fact, some people change their minds day to day. Whatever it may be, their currently exists major differences of opinions among highly regarded economists and corporate CEOs.

For some, the debt crisis in Europe, combined with the monumental debt piling up in the US is only delaying the inevitable. That being another dip in markets. For others, record low interest rates, strong earnings among manufacturers, and more liquid banks is priming the market for more of a rebound. The one thing that most will agree, is even if we do trend upwards, that will be a very slow growth.

I am encouraged with recent earnings from manufacturers, however am discouraged with many of their "restructuring" plans for 2012. With the latest earning reports, many US manufacturing companies released a restructuring plan for 2012 in which they will be looking to scale down operations as well as cut certain jobs. All seem to have the same answer when asked why. Because they are unsure of near term outlook. They would better be prepared than be caught by surprise.

What worries me most is how sluggish the current economy is, while enjoying record low interest rates. In fact, without such interest rates, I believe it is safe to say we would be head deep in a depression as of now. They are the lifeline that has kept us a float, barely. However, this cannot last forever. How long will the government extend this benefit while stockpiles of debt continue to grow? That of course, will be the big question as we go into 2012. The government has made it clear by both words and actions they will take ANY action necessary to keep markets flowing. Whether or not that will come back to haunt us is a big subject of debate.

At any rate, I see commodities finishing strong to end the year. As risk and uncertainty continues to rise, commodities will go stronger. I see a lot of opportunity in some of the emerging market sectors, but I will go into much more detail about that in a later post. Happy Trading.