A "Crude" Awakening
Posted On Monday, July 6, 2009 at at 10:33 AM by Finance FanaticMarkets started lower on Monday, mostly due to lowering crude prices, as oil hit its six-week low at $64. This is bad news from an investment standpoint, for those who were banking on continual rocketing oil prices, but from a consumer side, this is better news. The consumer is fighting enough battles, without having to worry about $3+ per gallon gas prices. Hopefully, we can see oil pullback into the low $50's and begin to stabilize. In time it should push back up, but that should be further down the road when inflation becomes an issue.
After being down around 70 points in the morning, the market has pulled back midday and has actually gotten in the green. I don't expect to see much of a big move either way today by close, but thus far, my DUG shares and DXO puts are performing very well.
For those that keep up with the site, know that I am an avid believer in the near term threat of deflation, which if we continue to see dropping energy and commodity prices, as well as an increasing dollar, only supports my belief more so. At this point, if deflation does become as big of a problem as I feel it definitely could, markets should experience serious selling pressure. You can track oil funds and other sector funds at Morningstar. For a free trial, click here : Morningstar Investment Research: Free Online Trial. 4,000 In-Depth Reports, Ratings. Data on 20,000+ Stocks and Funds.
SRS Wakes Up...New Momentum
Posted On Thursday, July 2, 2009 at at 4:22 PM by Finance FanaticFinally, we saw a bit of a spark from SRS on Thursday, as unemployment worries brought the Dow down over 200 points, and SRS finally performed, closing up almost 9.5%. This weathered well for me, considering my right before closing purchase of SRS yesterday. No doubt continuing dismal employment data effects all aspects of the economy, especially the financial sector and the continuing problems with commercial real estate. With SRS, I would expect to see increasing weakness from banks coming into this next quarter. We saw several banks close just today, in which I believe that will definitely continue.
Like I said yesterday, we are in quite a heated battle with technicals, which is why we have seen this wavering back and forth the past two months. However, we have recently seen a bit more momentum on the selling side. 880 for the S&P is a key point to look at. If those barriers are breached, we should see some significant more downside in the markets. Usually short weeks work in the favor of bulls, however, they could not compete with today's economic data.
Next week, I will continue to add to my portfolio, as this week performed quite well. We saw oil get slammed today and I believe that will soon become a trend, so a short on DXO, or going long on DUG is definitely being watched. In all of this, my Lending Club investment continues to stay strong at 10.5% as people are continuing to look for alternative forms of financing.
There are many options for people looking to consolidate their high interest bearing debt and find debt relief. Bills.com is a great site to look for debt relief in your hopes to reduce your interest payments. In this type of economic crisis, it is best to limit wasted spending to high interest rates and there are many options to do that. Go to their site for more info. Happy Trading.
PS - A premium podcast (subscribe here) will be posted this weekend about more stocks on my watch list this week.
Unemployment... Dissapointing
Posted On at at 3:34 PM by Finance FanaticWell, as we have been anticipating, jobless numbers came in on Thursday and they were not pretty. Economists were expecting a loss of 360k, hoping that we would remain near last month's strengthening number. However, the actual number came in at 467k, crushing expectations. Like I have said all along, one or two months of strengthening data is not significant in proving a total correction, it all depends on sustainability.
As a result, the unemployment rate is now announced to be at 9.5%, which was actually less than expected, which really doesn't make sense, given the extremely large non farm payroll number. I expect that number to be revised. Also, something worth noting is the continuing drop in average work week, which if continues, usually means there is more layoffs to come. It is no wonder we saw a -220 point day for the Dow. Here's a 3-day trial on a pretty good upper income job finder FREE 3-Day Trial Offer. Happy Trading.
Not Learning From The Past - Same Mistakes
Posted On Wednesday, July 1, 2009 at at 4:16 PM by Finance FanaticThe Treasury announced, Wednesday, their new plan to help homeowners who are drowning in their existing loans. Let me remind you that one of the big reasons we are in this housing crisis, was from the government setting initiatives for banks to "loosely" approve most consumers to take out a loan for a house. Without much collateral, many could take out a rather substantial loan, with barely putting anything down.
Now, the government is, very dangerously, flirting with that same principal by increasing the Loan to Value (LTV) ratio that consumers can take out as a refinance for their home. For those that have loans backed by Freddie and Fannie, will now be eligible to borrow up to 125% of the value of their home. Prior to this, the maximum amount was 105%, but the Treasury announced Wednesday, that they are increasing the LTV amount by an additional 20%.
The hopes of the increase, is for that those who have suffered the large drop in housing prices, will be able to afford to refinance their house. However, once again we offering up leverage to many that will probably abuse it. Sure, there are honest, legitimate cases out there that would benefit from the change, however as is usually the case, many will take advantage of it. This will allow others to dig themselves deeper into debt, and possibly risk losing even more equity in their house from falling values.
Sure, once again this may look to fix things in the very short term, however, it may be just one more cloud in this perfect storm forming. Happy Trading.
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Battle of Technicals
Posted On at at 12:21 PM by Finance FanaticMarkets are getting a good jump with the help of some better looking economic data. The ISM index came in around expectations, which many are hoping is an indicator that we are heading out of this. Also, pending home sales had its fourth consecutive positive run, however it was a small .01% run. To battle this, however, was a very nasty private employment report, which showed 473,000 jobs lost in the private sector. This is well above the non-farm payroll expectations, so we could be in for some trouble tomorrow.
There is a good battle going on with technicals right now in relation to the S&P. As you can see from the above graph, there is almost a perfect "heads and shoulders" move that we have seen the last two months. If you are looking on a monthly scale, the indicator is buy, however, on a weekly scale it is sell. The best way to interpret this call, is to wait on the sidelines. There is a big barrier at 880 for the S&P, in which if we pass, I expect to see some serious retracing. Click here for the full video.