Showing posts with label treasury crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label treasury crisis. Show all posts

Investors on Vacatiom - Government is Not

Treasury CrisisWell, just as I noted at the end of the last post I wrote this morning, never rule out the possibility of a closing run up. In our current trading conditions and with such low volume, markets can be moved and manipulated very easily. The problem is, is that the volume is getting lighter and lighter. This is one of several reasons why I believe this is not the initial "bull run up" that many believe it is. History has shown us that, in most cases, the initial move back up has some of the strongest gains as well as the largest buying volume. In our current case, the volume is only getting worse. Look at today, 189M, compared to a 384M average. That's almost half, on a Monday! Frankly, I believe more and more investors are becoming timid to trade in this market, considering the recent very unorthodox movements of the market and the fear of manipulation.

Despite the near 100 point down day the Dow sustained for most of the day, during the last minutes of trading, we were able to see yet another rally, which actually closed the Dow barely in positive territory. However, The NASDAQ remained relatively weak as did the S&P. More and more concerns are brewing about the movement of interest rates and the fate of the bonds. With the bankruptcy of GM and seeing the many problems that secured bond holders are going through, confidence in bonds are struggling. This is the last thing we need in an already very fragile economy. If problems continue in the bond markets and more doubts of the Treasury's ability to sustain confidence grows, it could cause some monumental problems in the economy.

The stock market can continue to go up, but with no volume behind it, it will only set up the market for a bigger failure. Until we can see more trending movement in the indices, it makes it a very dangerous environment to trade in. It is funny, but as you talk to real working professionals, they all seem to agree how uncomfortable the current market is. We seemed to be surrounded by nothing but bad news in our businesses and economic data, yet their remains so much optimism with government officials and in the stock market. I continue to hold my current holdings in my Zecco.com account until I get some very crucial data later this week. Happy Trading.

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