New Trading Activity
Posted On Thursday, August 20, 2009 at at 6:10 PM by Finance FanaticAs I said in the previous post, I think we will be experiencing some significant trading days in the coming weeks, if not days. I know I have been rather "stubborn" (as some would say) in believing that the worst was not over for the market and have consistently expressed my opinion of a second leg downward. Well, unforeseen intervention and ridiculous amounts of government spending and policy changed mixed things up quite a bit and have helped put us in this current, crazy state. Despite recent gains, I do feel that recent data has indeed been significant enough to support the notion of a severe short term risk of deflation, that would indeed send us spiraling down.
The PPI numbers on Tuesday are just part of what makes up my belief. As such, I believe there are going to be some great opportunities for me to make some money in my Zecco.com account. The inverse etfs, which have been dogs as of late, could definitely be ready for a second wind. Also, other industries I see weakness will be credit card companies as well as health insurance companies. Obama is on a mission for health care and I believe he has some serious regulation in mind for insurance companies that will dig into their profit margins. Credit Card companies should get hit by a more "saving minded" consumer as well as the risk for more regulation heading their way as well.
Long term, airlines and autos look like decent plays as I believe there should be a short term cut to gasoline prices, as well as the continued "success" of cash for clunkers. However, all industries are in risk of a deflationary down spiral, so if such things were to occur, longs would be a tough call (aside for the US Dollar).
All my beliefs are obviously based on natural workings of the market and could once again be stalled by yet another government explosion of stimulus. I do, however, believe that the government is getting close to the edge of what they can do monetarily, as they are maxing out their sale of treasuries. The next few weeks should start to become very interesting, in my opinion, and hopefully, we start to see some direction. Happy Trading.