Showing posts with label stocks after an election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stocks after an election. Show all posts

Obama Hangover - Dow Plunges Due To Continual Global Economic Strain

It seems as if reality struck a day sooner than expected. After seeing global markets reacting the way they did last night, I was surprised to see us down this morning. I thought we would maybe get a little rally today, followed by this massacre tomorrow or Friday. This just goes to show how grim the forecast looks for the next year. I am not blaming today's mishap on Obama, however, I knew yesterday's gains were a bit overzealous for the current situation we are in.

GDX actually weathered pretty well today and I was able to liquidate all my shares of AIG this morning before it got too nasty. Although I was hoping for a near $3 sale, I was able to sell at $2.30, yielding a 43% return in 3 days. Not too bad. So now, I am completely out of my long positions and will stay that way for the next month or two. Not too say I don't think we will have anymore green days. I just think if we do, they will be in result to a manipulated short squeeze or a reaction to some new stimulous plan that gets everyone all riled up again. Either way, they will be very, very short term.

I said not to lose faith in FXP, today we saw it up over 15%. SKF and SRS also saw huge gains. My large position in FXP ended giving me a pretty good day today, overall. And I believe it's going to be tough to slow this downward train.

Tomorrow, we have retail news. If it's anything close to last months, it will be bad. Consumer sediment has almost been completely wiped out and with the recent earnings reports from several retailers, I'm guessing this to be a bad month. Look for SRS to take a pretty healthy jump tomorrow, as most of their shorts are with real estate REITS. This stock is still a strong buy! I believe by January, we will see it back at $200+. With this news, we should probably see another down day tomorrow and even Friday. Our short term rally could be wiped out as soon as Monday.

It is still possible that today was a lot of profit taking. Solar stocks were crushed today, which was surprising, because with the election of Obama, (who is a strong supporter of alternative energy) you would expect a bounce. However, yesterday there was such strong gains that almost was overzealous. But don't be overly shocked if we somehow make it into the green tomorrow. People still are on this buzz of change with Obama.

Stay with your short positions, they will be what makes you a lot of money the next two months. If you haven't bought FXP, it is still a good buy. It was a lot better at $75, but under $100, it is still a great buy.

If you feel uncomfortable only in a short position, look to buy April contracts of GDX ($26) or GLD ($82), or look to get into some solar. STP is a great undervalued solar company. A few months ago, Morningstar had a 5 star rating with a target price of $92. Today, it closed at $16.35. I believe this stocks should be at $30-$40 by February. With the help of Obama's alternative energy crush, we should see strength in the big solar players. This is if you HAVE to go long. I would prefer to just hold short for now. This credit crisis we are in will most likely not BEGIN to get better by early 2010. So enjoy these inverse ETF's, because there are not a lot of guarantees in life! Have a good night and Happy Trading. We'll see you tomorrow.

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Obama Wins - Wall Street Loses


As we progress further into "Rave Week", we continue to find surprises. Although, we did anticipate a rally this week, with the fact that historically stocks have rallied following elections. One thing is for sure, Wall Street does not like uncertainty, which is why in most cases there is a slowing prior before elections. However, with certainty comes a rally. In this case, with the polls strongly favoring Obama to win today, it seems as though Wall Street has already made up its mind, finishing the day over 9600. It seems as if they feel the uncertainty is over. Remember, I cautioned for the possibility of a rally towards 10000, since the 9200 threshold was reached. But tomorrow will be tricky. As when news is expected to be announced, like the Fed Rate cut, or high earnings, there is usually a bigger run before hand factoring in the expectations. I believe we have experienced that "anticipation" of the election today. However, when the excitement settles and America "sobers" up, we will still be in the same financial crisis we started months ago, and this time Head Deep. Look for a new bottom to be established in December or January.

Tomorrow, I believe we have a good chance to keep this rally going. Foreign markets should respond well this evening to the election and strong performance in Wall street, which should carry over into tomorrow. However, I think this rally could be put to a sharp halt on Thursday and/or Friday. Like I said yesterday, employment news is announced on Friday, and that can't be good.

The only thing keeping the market above 9000 the next couple of weeks will be the short squeeze we are experiencing, because of Redemptions due in Mid November. Until then, we may see this awkward stimulated market, with the help of some market manipulation. Just remember, we aren't even labeled a "recession" yet. We have a ways to go.

So what to do. As expected, we saw big moves in GDX and AIG. I think I will look to sell AIG as it approaches $3. GDX looks like a good sell for me at $25. Both have been great this past week and still should move. GDX has moved 30% in the past few days where AIG has almost doubled.

LOAD UP ON FXP, Wow! I was extactic to see it go below $80 today. I picked up another good load of shares today at $74. People, I know it's hard to see the sharp decline in buy into it, but this is a steal. The harsh times that lie ahead for the end of the year will directly show in the value of FXP. I believe we will hit the $200 price by January.

For Tomorrow, expect another rally, maybe not as strong as today. This may be the last day to get FXP at this strong, discounted price. If you still are in GDX or AIG, you may want to consider selling of some if not all your shares tomorrow, before the market gets struck. SKF and SRS are getting very close to purchasing price, I'm just waiting a bit longer (although that is a gamble, because this could be the lowest it goes). Be patient, like I said in prior posts, in this round of FXP, we aren't going to see a double in a week like we did last time. We may have to wait a month or two this time. So be patient, Happy Trading and we'll look to see what this market does tomorrow. Oh and if McCain somehow wins tomorrow, who knows what the market will do, all bets are off. See you Tomorrow.

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Stocks May Rally - Halloween Sparks Confidence

Despite continual economic woes, we still see the marketing battling hard to stay above water. This is exactly why I said we're heading into "Rave Week". On the bright side, even in the up day, we still saw FXP take a little hop from yesterday's closing. That should show you the resilience of this ETF. Today, the market broke a critical barrier of 9300, which some believe was a threshold the market needed to beat to see a healthy run. Many believe that the market may rally close to 10000 this next week because this threshold was reached. As for me, it's Rave Week, so I won't bet on it.

I am very happy to only be in FXP currently. In fact I would not mind a healthy rally on Monday to send the shorts down further to lower my basis. Currently, SRS is becoming very tempting at $115, but I am going to continue to wait until it is under $100.

As I have said before, historically, the stock market takes a little bounce after an election and with the short squeeze on going with the Hedge Funds, we are set up for a nice little rally. Even though I am predicting a rally next week, I am going to wait on the sidelines and only stock up on my short position if prices fall. Look to continue to pick up shares of FXP if they fall $85 and below as well as SRS if it falls below $100. An investment to be considering in the near future is Gold. Next week I will discuss why it is a buy and how we can make some quick cash on it. We ended the week with a little bit of unexcitement, but we are set up to do quite well this next month. Have a Good Halloween and lets make some money next week. We'll see you Monday.

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