Showing posts with label stock bottom. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock bottom. Show all posts

Dow Rallies On! Massive Sell Off Could Be Near

I found this clip to be closely related to what is going on in the market right now, with about the same strength of foundation. The bull rages on! Wow, there is some serious momentum behind this thing. Unfortunately, the volume is not there to make me believe it is the big “flushing of funds” from the sidelined institutions that everyone one has been waiting for to get back in the market. I believe it is a speculative, end of the year rally that has no foundation to maintain its ability to continue upward. In fact, I believe we are at risk for a massive sell off soon. It could be as early as tomorrow, depending on all the bailout circumstances. In 3 trading days, the Dow has gone up almost 600 points without selling. In a bear market recession/depression, that is unheard of. I can’t imagine investors leaving these profits on the table for very much longer. Heck, even in the little long position I am in, I was tempted to sell out of them today, because of the huge profits I have made off them. But I am going to hang on to them for the time being, just in case we continue to run. I have plenty of green waiting if the market goes down.

I do not think that the sell off this week will be the beginning of the next round of bottom testing, as the bull is well alive. I just think a profit taking day is due, and I am being careful on picking up anything long tomorrow or Wednesday. My IRA account killed it today. As I discussed in the What to put in my IRA post, all of the equities we discussed have been doing exceptionally well. Energy and commodities have taken such a beating and should have the biggest rebound, as far as profits go, when the market turns around. At least I will have some good money when I retire. If you don’t have an IRA already, this can be a good time to set one up and put some good long equities in there. At the levels we are at currently, it doesn’t matter whether we go down another 20%, they are bound to go up. These can be tax sheltered, which is great. You can sign up for an IRA and get free trades monthly at Zecco.com.

I cheer the market in its successes, but unfortunately, I still feel it will be short-lived. I still can’t get that horrific number that was reported on Friday out of my head, especially when there is no signs of it getting better. I mean LA Times, Chicago Tribune, and The Cubs all filed bankruptcy today. No, bailout for them. I believe this recession will have it’s different phases and when the unemployment factor kicks in, it’s going to be brutal. I also can’t stress enough the kind of foreclosure disaster we are going to experience next year when the commercial loans start becoming due. Most of you probably drive by a little Starbucks corner center every morning. Well, most of those centers are most likely paying unbelievable rents (Starbucks was know for signing very high rents, not anymore), which in most cases will not be sustainable. I’m sure that same center has 1 or 2 vacancies. Next year, it will probably be 4 or 5.

At any rate, we discussed on Friday the good possibility of this rally pushing to the 9200 region and beyond, which seems to be true. Bulls in a bear market can be fierce, and the best thing to do sometimes is to get out of the way until it gets burned it out. And it will.

So, wow, discount day on all the shorts. I can’t believe it. $35 FXP, $78 SRS, $101 SKF. Are you kidding me? It felt like yesterday they were all at $200+. They sure can move. My favorite of them all is SRS. Wow, I had to pick some up today at these prices. I never thought I would see the day when it was below $100, let alone in the $70’s again. Like I said before, FXP has been put to the back burner until China becomes more exposed to the rest of the world about the massive problems that are coming their way. Although we could be bull for a bit longer, these are DISCOUNTED right now!

I will be keeping an eye out for a sell off day that I believe is coming soon. Oil and Gold are ones that I would actually go long in right now. Oil should not stay long at it’s current lows. Solar and alternative energy (STP) have been killed with the demolishing of oil prices. They are also a great one to consider as Obama’s energy plan is very favorable to alternative energy. I am actually invested a couple of penny stock companies that are in their R&D stage for that reason. Carbon Sciences (CABN) is a company with the technology to capture carbon emissions and make fuel, building materials, and other useful resources. Also, Origin Oil (OOIL), is a company developing the technology to make oil from self generating Algae. Much more effective than ethanol. Being in the R&D stage, they are in the pennies now (both just recently went public), so they have a ton of upside if they products hit the market. Obama is looking into requiring carbon emission capturing with some of the big plants. Check them out.

At any case, fundamentals will return to the market. Watch out in your longs. I am always hedged on the short side whenever I am long in this market. I hope you have a good night, Happy Trading and we will see you tomorrow.

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