Showing posts with label rebound rally. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rebound rally. Show all posts

Short Term Memory

investors memoryInvestors are all buy today as some good economic data as well as a strong earnings report from Intel sparked a lot of green. Bulls are feeling the strong push today supports their notion of the next leg of the rally happening. I am not so easily convinced. Although today is breaking through some recent Fibonacci resistant points, a lot of today's buying is also emotional. Many feared inflation possibilities (even though I've said several times that inflation is still a ways out), but today's CPI data came in line with analyst's expectations, which gave another reason for investors to cheer. Industrial production still remains down, but less severe than recent months have shown. Overall, if you're a bear, which I am mostly in my portfolio at this point, you are hibernating today.

It is amazing to think about how quickly we, as a society, are able to forget things. Just months ago, investors were avoiding the stock market as they would the plague, as fears of massive bank failure, huge corporate bankruptcies, and a diminishing dollar crushed investor's confidence. However, almost as quickly as the flick of a wand, those worries have diminished and been replaced with a fire of confidence. In many cases, scary signs still remain. A still falling residential market, massive unemployment, and a beginning to a commercial real estate crash are just a few reasons I cannot stand and cheer at this point. I want nothing more than to see us pull out of this, but I am waiting until I see a full recovery, not just fabricated numbers.

Just how quickly this reverse in sentiment has come it can leave. Today's rally is refreshing for bulls, but still hasn't turned any tides at this point. Heading into close, I will be considering picking up some FAZ and SRS, as I am not so confident at this point we will be seeing and big buying strides. I will have a rather informative podcast tonight for you subscribers about some serious data that doesn't make headlines.

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