Reality Begins To Set In - Market Down Over 400 Points
Posted On Wednesday, November 12, 2008 at at 1:26 PM by ChrisEvery day that goes by we are seeing America slowly realizing just how bad it may get the next year. Today, only 1 stock was positive in the Dow and it was GM, solely based on the expectation of a government bailout. And I still believe the worse is yet to come.
Today, Secretary Paulson had a press conference to tell the country they are "revamping" the way they're going to spend the $700 billion bailout funds. Instead of focusing on troubled mortgage assets, they're going to focus on consumer credit debt. So now it sounds like they want to bailout people's credit card debt so that credit card companies can start lending to the same people again. What a great plan. This will somehow "unfreeze" the lending markets again. It sounds like full circle to me.
Well, the market didn't respond to well to Paulson's address. Following his remarks, we saw the Dow plunge another 100 points (300 more by the end of the day). The point is, even with hedge funds liquidating, most traders are realizing that we probably have some bad days ahead. These current market trends and volatility we are seeing are frightening close to the trends we saw in the market leading up to Black Tuesday. It's days like these, I'm glad I'm short.
FXP fought a hard fought battle today. It opened up in the red as a response to China's relatively strong performance last night. However, today's raging storm of bad news eventually brought it back up, closing a bit above $82. This is very encouraging for me, considering China had a strong day yesterday. China showed slow retail sales growth for the last month, which should shake things up. Most likely, Asia will take a bath this evening in response to our own bath. I'm looking for FXP to take a strong pop tomorrow.
On a different note, I actually bought long today. That's right, long. GDX has been so beaten up, I picked up some January expiring options at $22. So this gives me plenty of time for Gold to get a bit of a bounce from its recent slaughtering. I felt the need to hold something long as a hedge. If we go red again tomorrow, I am looking to buy back into the .QAADB Apple option (being below $10). Apple in the $90 range is a pretty good short term buy for me. I am enjoying the gains from SRS, SDS, and QID as well. Those should continue to run strong as we test a new bottom in the coming weeks/months.
There is still debate whether or not GM will be bailed out. My guess is they will. I don't think the government wants to send this market down the 6000 range (although I'm not sure if I agree with the bailout). Oil is another one to watch. It continues to get slaughtered as demand keeps going down. However, OPEC is considering another "emergency meeting" to cut supply again. This usually does well to give a nice 10-15% bump in DIG. I would wait to see how this week plays out before buying it. But if DIG goes below $25, it's a buy in my book.
Tomorrow, should be another good day for me, unless we wake up with a surprise from the government. There is still a chance of some manipulation from hedge funds, Friday being the deadline. Keep in mind, we still have the doozy of an announcement Friday, when they announce US retail sales. Once again, keep your eye on China tonight, that usually gives a good preview of where to expect FXP for tomorrow. Happy Trading everyone, and we'll see you tomorrow. Feel free to drop some comments, I'd like to hear other's thoughts.
Weekly Tip - Apple To Report Earnings Tomorrow
Posted On Monday, October 20, 2008 at at 4:26 PM by ChrisFriday I bought April expiring call options for Apple (AAPL) when the stock was at $94 dollars. Even though I believe we are a downward trending market for the next 12 months, there are still times where I like going long in the market. The reason why I like this play is that I believe a lot of good companies have been brought down to ridiculous prices because of the overall status of Wall Street. Apple is one of those companies.
When looking at the fundamentals, in my eyes, there is no reason that Apple should be below $140, let alone $100. They have barely any debt and a brand that should weather pretty well even in a recession. When people have to sell, they sell it all. So I take it as a great opportunity for me. The reason why I like this stock this week, is because Apple announces earnings tomorrow after the market closes. So far this month, IBM and Google have both produced strong earnings and slaughtered market expectations. I don't see Apple breaking this trend.
Pending on this good news, I see Apple jumping anywhere from $110 to $120 in the next week or so. I decided to go with the call option, just to hedge some risk against bad news that could bring the stock down further. Look for a $110 to $120 January - April expiring contract before tomorrow's close. I will keep you updated on where I sell mine at.
Wall Street Update - How to make money in the stock market right now?
Posted On at at 3:56 PM by ChrisSELL! SELL! SELL! That's what everyone's been saying the past few months, and with the Dow Jones still under 10,000, it seems as thought that is what people have been doing. Many people have already seen their retirement accounts cut in half or even worse. Is there any hope? Should I liquidate everything I have, take my losses, and walk away? These have been the questions several of you have been asking yourself the past 6 months. Hopefully, I can show you some things that have been working for me.
Right now, the volatility of the stock market is like nothing we have ever seen. Today the VIX closed at 52.97 (down 24%), giving this market a wide range of trading area. Just within the past two weeks, I have seen several days where the market has had over 700 point swings in the same day. For some, this causes them to grind their teeth and pull out there hair. For others, it creates a great opportunity to make some good cash in a short period of time. Day traders have switched from Penny Stocks to Apple. What you need to make sure of is to be on the right side of the bump. If you are, you chance at making anywhere from 30-300% return on your investment, all in one day.
In days to come, I will keep you up to date of information on stocks that I am playing in my portfolio. Currently, Year to date, I am up 20% in my porfolio, which some may find impossible. There are ones to play on the long side, and ones to play on the short. With the help of ETF funds, people can play the short side without having to go naked on stocks. It's great. And as we continue to see our market get worse and worse, these short positions will take off. For starters, take a look at the ETF, FXP. It closed today around $90. Let's return to this stock in a week and see where it is, my guess is that it will be much higher in between now and then. Continue to check back for other ideas for your portfolio. There are ways to make A LOT of money in this market.