Crash Market Stocks - Financial Tips On Making Money In The Stock Market

For those that called it a day for trading a 3PM (eastern), most likely came back to their computers wondering what on earth happened the last 45 minutes of trading to make what was another 3% down day to just under .1% at close. So what on earth happened to make investors think that it was time to start buying? I find it no coincidence that the movement was made near the 820 S&P, as a closing under 820 would have been a pretty strong technical move. Here's some information that hit the press just in time.

With an hour left before close, the media announced Obama's plan to subsidize mortgages to prevent foreclosures. Once again before any sort of detailed information or laid out plan for the process of doing so, investors immediately jumped on the "rumor" train to gobble up any stocks in sight. It was early in this announcement that caused me to shave off some of my SRS profits from earlier (hit $70 today, I sold some at $68) and went in and bought some FAS. Just in the time before close my FAS went up 3%. This was a complete 180 degrees to what I felt I was going to be doing at the end of the day, but this is exactly why I choose the end of the day to make a lot of my moves. So, yes I indeed joined the buy craze in case this "rumor" train goes into tomorrow. Plus, I got some solid gains from SRS anyway today.



So where do I begin in expressing my thoughts of this new plan. This idea is even more out there than Geithner's plan. Subsidize mortgages? Are you kidding me? Is the government aware of just how much toxic debt is outstanding and is going to be outstanding in the next 3 years? Then what happens when commercial real estate hits the fan, which it will. He talks of securing the assets to try and incentivize banks to keep lending. Again, where is this money coming from? If Obama does indeed decide to pursue this outrageous task, it is inevitable that our dollar will be completely destroyed. So I am curious to see how quickly this plan is shot down by the public, but it all came out so quick today, that investors thought of nothing else to do but to buy. So I believe with the combination of the long weekend, it being Friday tomorrow, and our new "rumored" plan from Obama, it would be good to get me some long positions to try and earn some green tomorrow. But I was pretty surprised to see how quickly my Zecco.com account changed.

If not for the late announcement, I was actually almost ready to pull the trigger on some more shorts. Like I've said before, you never know what's going to happen during the day, especially with this new administration. I had a feeling they had something up their sleeve, as a big selling day for today would have been a bad sign for the markets.

Everyone was surprised to see the market down so much with the, what many thought were "positive, numbers" for retail. A .9% increase reported compared to the -.6% that was expected. However, there was some very bad employment data that came out to quickly kill the optimism. Plus, remember the retail sales is a measure of the total receipts of retail stores, this is not the bottom line. I am more interested in the bottom line of retailers, which can't look pretty. Think of all the liquidation sales that are going on this month and that were left over from the holidays. Everything is on sale. So, indeed, total sales may be up, but I bet you the bottom line or net income is looking pretty scary.

So indeed, I switched it up a bit today and it will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings. I definitely will try to get out of FAS as soon as I can as I see no backbone for financials at the current time. If there is indeed a rally tomorrow, I don't expect it to last long. Who knows, maybe the reality of nonsense of the plan will catch up to the market by tomorrow and there will be no rally, which is why I'm setting a 5% stop loss. I do, however, see nothing for green for gold as continual printing of US dollars should keep gold firing. Check out GDX's market trend chart, a +100, wow (get your own symbol analyzed for free, all you need is a name and email, Click Here).
See you on the chat, Happy Trading and we'll see you tomorrow.

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In recent weeks, there has been a lot of talk of these inverse etfs we discuss so frequently on this site and whether they are a legitimate vehicle for investment in this market. Some analysts, such as Cramer, feel that these funds should be taken off the market. Although Cramer can say some educational things sometimes, his banter on this subject must be from a personal vendetta he has with the funds, because his argument is just plain nonsense. When I look into my portfolio from Zecco.com, I notice that most of my portfolio is made up of these etfs right now. I have made a lot money from these in the past. I have also lost some. The point is, although there are flaws (if you want to call them that) to the funds and they can cause a lot of stress, there can still be A LOT of money made with playing them at the right time and in the right way.

A key element to the success of these etfs, is the VIX level. VIX (Volatility Index of the S&P) has proven to have a strong correlation with the performances of these funds. As the VIX index is higher, so is the volatility. In turn, having the "fear index" raised during the more volatile times puts even higher premiums on the purchase of options. These funds consist largely of swaps and option purchases. This is why you see the greatest gains from these funds during the highes peaks of the VIX. And even more so downward on the low peaks (see below).



As you can see from the graph below, SKF and SRS (two of Proshares most popular 2x inverse etfs) track almost directly with the VIX , just more exaggerated. The separation is even worse on the down swing. This is why when people analyze the funds on 1 year+ holding terms, the numbers don't equal out, because the number can fall at a more rapid rate than it went up. This is largely due to where the VIX levels are at and where the momentum is. These past two months, the market became very consistently bullish, which shot down the prices of these funds much dramatically then they went up. Because of the sophisticated nature of these funds, with the swaps and options, as well as the management fees, these funds can move at a much larger rate than their claimed 2X leveraged of their measured fund. This can be a two edged sword as they can indeed yield stronger gains than just 2x the funds movement or lose more on the way down.

It is for this reason everyone is hating these funds right now, because they have lost so much value recently. However, with the combination of the even more so weakening economy and the VIX levels reaching over 50 on Friday (lows were at 38 and highs were at 80), I am more and more seeing big opportunities for these etfs again. Just from the 38 to 50 move in the index, Many of these funds have jumped 20-35% in a week. They are obviously to be played on momentum and volatility. If the VIX continues to move higher the next couple of weeks, there could be some serious gains by these funds.

It is hard to just pick a day on a calender and do a yearly analysis on these funds as you would a normal stock or mutual fund. Because of the rate of change that these funds can move at, it can be up 150% in 2 weeks or vise versa. Two months ago, no one was questioning the return abilities of them. At the time they were all $200+! It is all about timing the bumps right and getting on the right side of the momentum. Keep your eye on the VIX levels, because if it continues to push upward, you can expect to see strong gains from these funds. To sum it up, I'm a bull on SRS, SKF, FXP(or FAZ) and EEV.

UYG is one to be considered just for this week as Obama is put into office, but I'm not going to hold it for long. Banks should get some love as hopes for the biggest bailout ever is present. However, as we discussed last week, the crater to fill is much deeper than the shovels of dirt he plans to throw on it.

Here is a great trend analysis site ( Click Here) where they will take any symbol your tracking and do a great fundamental analysis on it. I've used it on these funds, and they work well. They are also offering a free video tutorial on expert training and technical analysis, Click Here. Definitely worth learning about in this market. Check them out, they'll give you free trials, all they need is your email and name.

Have a good evening everyone. Happy MLK day and lets see if Obama can tackle the biggest financial crisis this country has ever seen. Happy Trading.