More and More Crude
Posted On Wednesday, September 9, 2009 at at 11:04 AM by Finance FanaticDespite massive deflation in most every consumer demanded product (housing, cars, commodities, food), crude continues to find ways to climb higher. Crude futures top the $70 mark again, which as a result, does not weather well for the consumer. All beaten down consumers need now, is increasing oil prices to boost up the price of gas and rob them more of their discretionary income. We already know consumer credit is down with record rates, saving rates are record high, and income is getting less and less. With increasing oil prices, there will be no more money left to circulate in the actual money supply, thus boosting the overall economy. I can only see this recent blast in crude prices lasting for a very short period. We saw oil futures get massively manipulated in 2007 and 2008, so we should not forget its easy vulnerability.
Volume remains critically low in market trading today as investors are finding it difficult to find things to buy these days. I don't expect volume to remain low for very much longer as we are heading into the busy season for hedge funds and Investment Banks. Considering that 200,000 jobs are still getting slashed every month, I don't see consumer income improving anytime soon. Thus, continued struggles into 2010.
Flat Day - What's New?
Posted On Tuesday, June 9, 2009 at at 2:06 PM by Finance FanaticAfter much pushing and pulling from both sides, we once again saw the Dow close pretty much flat today. That is now two days consecutive of very dull, low volume trading. It is obvious nerves are settling in for many investors as they've all gone away. Even the day traders are gone! It kind of feels like we are stuck watching a soundless movie from the 40's, right after we watched Lord of the Rings in high definition. At any rate, I'm not expecting to make big money on days like today.
One thing to watch for that has caught my eye, is the moving of the VIX. Even though the VIX has been dragging as of late, if you look at the regression line formed by the recent bottoms since the beginning of 2007, it is currently settling almost perfectly in line with the regression, suggesting that we may be at the bottom for the VIX. I wouldn't trade solely based on this criteria, but with the other technical signals, it's definitely significant and worth noting.Oil reached $70 per barrel today for the first time in 2009. This means more money down the drain for you and I into our gas tanks and less into consumer spending. On top of that, unfortunately, most of those profits benefit companies outside of the US, so it's almost a lose, lose for us, unless of course you are invested in oil. At any rate, like I've said before, I believe Oil has hit its temporary peak and should settle somewhere between $60 to $70 per barrel by the end of the year. We saw this coming and talked about it in January.
Retail sales come out Thursday, which I would assume after that credit spending report we got, can't be all that good. Although, analysts have once again done a great job of low balling the number, so who knows how the market will react. We are expecting a minor uptick, which I actually would still be surprised to see. I may see some opportunity to short some department stores tomorrow. I'll keep you posted. Happy Trading