Monday Mid-day Nerves
Posted On Monday, August 24, 2009 at at 11:57 AM by Finance FanaticMonday opened up with yet another strong green day of trading, mostly reacting to yet another positive month of existing home sales. An increase in sales from the prior month brings no surprise, when considering the amount of bank owned properties that are currently on the market, which are being sold for extreme discounted prices. However, as the trend tends to be as of late, anything positive begets positive trading, at least for now.
There have been a few people who have asked why I haven't made more trades the past month. The very simple answer to the question is because we are not in a logical trading market at this time. I have always said that I am not a "day trader." There were recent times where I saw benefit to making quick, daily trades to take advantage of volatile swings, however, we have changed a lot since then. I believe there is plenty of opportunity in the future for much less riskier plays with a lot more upside. Sure, it may seem boring to the active trader, but it has not failed me yet. So, I apologize for those looking for a more active trader. I will continue to give my commentary on calculated plays that interest me, but until I see a deflationary trigger (which could be very soon), the portfolio will remain pretty status quo.
After the big green morning, the market has taken back all of its profits and is actually, currently, slightly trading in the red. With the so called "positive" home sales news, came some other data that doesn't have such a positive light. With the number of home sales increasing, the inventory actually rose more, which is discouraging, given the amount of distressed, foreclosed homes that were sold. With all of this, home prices continue to go down, which is not a good outlook, when considering an increase in sales.
This being said, reality has sunk in a bit today and could easily head into close, pending there is no intervention. So watch out for a selling close. An industry I see prime for shorting at this point is the autos. Due to the recent closing of the popular "cash for clunkers" program, buying a vehicle almost seems like an annoyance, more so than a luxury. I can't see auto companies making strong profits to close out the year, especially without Uncle Sam sparking interest with incentives.
Home Sales Dissapoint
Posted On Tuesday, June 23, 2009 at at 3:45 PM by Finance FanaticAlthough it was the second consecutive month existing home sales increased, today's number report for May was slightly lower than many analysts expected. A rise of 4.77M existing home sales was reported for May, following April's revised 4.66M increase. However, due to us being in summer months as well as the very large amount of foreclosed inventory that is currently on the market, analysts expected better.
Considering the sluggish move in homes sales, to me, shows that there are still many elements weighing heavily on this economy and the consumer. There has not been a better time to buy a house, when you consider the benefits. The Federal Government gives thousands of dollars worth of incentives (and maybe more here soon), in which many states match with their own incentives. In addition to that, interest rates are at a near historic low and most of the inventory you have to choose from are bank owned houses that are being offered at very discounted, affordable prices. Even with all of this, consumers are just not confident enough in this environment to buy and many don't have the extra income.
Investors did not take the news lightly, as the markets remained down for most of the day. Existing home sales has been a strong, reliable benchmark in times past to help determine when the economy may be rebounding. However, thus far, the housing market department has yet to provide such information, which is beginning to worry many investors. Many will also look to tomorrow as The Fed will report on their meeting and announce the future of interest rates. There has definitely been a strong shift, recently, in consumer sentiment.