Showing posts with label citi profits. Show all posts
Showing posts with label citi profits. Show all posts

Nothing But Buying Today - But Don't Be Fooled

Citi bankIt seemed as many of you made some good money on today's big rally, as I noticed quite a bit of donations coming from many of you, I guess as a "tip". 10% right? Ha, but I do appreciate the contributions and promise to always strive to find new ways to make the site more interactive and beneficial to the readers. The chat is working out good it seems. Anyway, on to the fireworks.

Well, it came a bit later than I expected, but it came with force. The market shot up before trading even begun and never looked back as the DOW closed up 5.8%. This is that "vicious" bear market rally that has been worrying me since I sold out of a lot of my shorts. I got caught in it once and didn't want to see it again. Volume shot out of the roof today as it seems many of the institutions got off the sidelines today and made some trades. The most impressive part of the rally was its closing. I was waiting to see if there was going to be some profit taking right before close, but in fact, it continued to go up. This could indicate that maybe we'll see some more green tomorrow. Let's be honest, we needed it.

My FAZ put option (.FAZOL) closed up 165%. My DUG put up 70%. My BAC finally weathered the strong increase I've been waiting for, however it has a bit more to go for me to be satisfied. It sounds very good, but I had some losses to make up for, so my in pocket profits wern't that crazy, but good enough for going long. Both these options are expiring next week which is the reason for such the volatility. So, if indeed the market is down tomorrow, they are bound to take a big hit. I shaved some profits today and have some room for losses after the big gains today.


Gold dipped below 900 today which caught my attention real quick. Gold may continue to go down a bit in March, but it is almost low enough for me to get in and sit on for a while. Although, we are still a little while away from inflation, when it comes, it will most likely hit hard. I wouldn't see surprised to see gold shoot up to the 1300-1400 range. So, anymore below 900 and I expect to pick up some DGP and September expiring GDX options. GDX has a Market Club report score of -60, which I think there is some good upside to it (get your own symbol analyzed for free, all you need is a name and email, Click Here).

Believe it or not, but this rally is aligned perfectly with the models in creating an environment for a market crash. I mentioned this in another post. My recent long plays are very, very short term. Just to earn a buck or two on the quick bounce. My real hopes for the rally is to get the shorts in a much better position for a heavy load up. We saw today SRS and FAZ get killed. Well, if this rally goes as strong as I think it will, we may see some steals for these down the road.

We are heading into dangerous times that, I'm sure many will get hurt. Psychologically, bear market rallies can mess with your head. Already, we are hearing from money hungry analysts that we've reached the bottom and it's time to get in. This is after one day of a strong rally. Imagine the sentiment out there if we spend most of March climbing back up to near 8000 levels. There will be a lot of people out there buying thinking that the worst is over. As for me, I'm calling this what I believe it to be, a vicious bear market rally. The bear is still very much alive, just catching up on some zzzz's. So don't count me in as one preaching "We're at bottom", as I am ready and waiting to load up on short.

Another scary sign which fits right into a capitulating market are the recent credit tightening signs we're seeing again. Whitney talked a lot about today and had some good words to say about it. Having the markets slow up on credit will greatly contribute to the already existing deflation problems we have. We will be getting inflation/deflation data in the next couple of weeks, so it will be interesting to see where we are at these days.

So before everyone gets excited to see if this indeed the rally (or just spurred by Citi's fudged numbers), we need to see what it does tomorrow. We could very well give back half if not all that we gained today during tomorrow's trading. However, if the market has another strong day of trading, I think it would be safe to say that we are in for a bit of a bear market rally. I am not going to try and play this rally much, mostly what I already have, as it can change its face at anytime. Here are my general targets for some shorts I plan to BEGIN to load up on:

SRS - low 60's
FAZ- Mid 40's to low 50's
EEV-low 40's
QID-High 40's
SDS-60-70's

These will most likely change as time goes on, but as for now that's a rough sketch. So once again, I look for what tomorrow will bring. If indeed we rally big again tomorrow, I will be looking to exit out of some of these longs and take more profits. I also will be looking to buy some shorts as well. At any rate, I plan on making some moves with my Zecco.com account.

So I will be up early and waiting, I'll try to catch you on chat. Have a good evening, Happy Trading and see you tomorrow.

Posted in Labels: , , , , , , , , , | 14 comments


Share/Bookmark