Crash Market Stocks - Financial Tips On Making Money In The Stock Market

Finally we can bid farewell to this crazy market year we call 2008. It seems as if investors felt a little optimistic seeing the year end not completely in shambles as we saw the Dow end up another percent today. To be honest, I'm glad the year is over. It's almost as if people have been waiting until 2009 to see everything change. I am sure we, as a country, will have another pretty strong reality check as we continue to see things not get better around here anytime soon. But for now, I cheer with the investors to hopefully be able to find greener pastures in 2009, as I do prefer to make money on the way up, than on the way down.

I received a lot of emails asking about my experience with Lending Club. I have not joined yet, but will probably next week. I will be sure to keep you all updated to see if I indeed make the 10%+ returns I am hoping for. I'm sure there are many people looking at their accounts for end of year statements, whether it be your IRA or trading account and are seeing pretty massive losses, as all industries received the biggest slam since the 1930's. Below is a chart showing the overall 2008 ending performances for the popular indexes, with China and Dow Financials coming in as the worst for the year.

Gold remained up, which I still remain bullish, as my GDX shares just about touched $34 today. It seems like just yesterday I was buying those shares at $18. I still think gold has a lot of catching up to do as do other commodities.

In light of our new President taking office here shortly, I will be looking into some good alternative energy investments, as I feel those should receive a pretty strong push as Obama's energy package is very favorable to alternative energy. With lowering oil prices, solar has been slammed with people thinking that with oil so low, there is no need for alternative fuels. Well, with the kind of incentives and tax credits Obama is sure to activate during is reign, they look awfully good to me. STP has been on my radar for a while as they are a strong solar competitor. I also have invested in some research and development stocks (CABN and OOIL), which being R&D, their current stock prices are low, but their product and technology is right up Obama's alley. I think both of them can easily produce 100%+ profits in the near future. Sure, they are definitely more risky, but I'll take my chances with this president.

These thoughts are a bit pre-mature, but I try to stay a little ahead of the game. I still think we have some serious bleeding to go before we see any light in this market. Days like today can make people think we're back on track, but by looking at the facts, I cannot even come close to thinking that. Plus, we had some confidence pushed in with The Fed announcing last night that they would begin to buy mortgage securities in January. This is what caused a strong rally for real estate today and a horrible day for SRS and SKF. If people think this announcement means our real estate days of woes are done, think again.

So we close one door, only to open a new one. It will be interesting to see what 2009 brings. It is such a critical year for our economy, especially with the new president. I think some will make a lot of money this year, as many will lose more money (in my opinion). The current VIX levels have made people a bit more comfortable with market conditions, but remember, a market crash usually strikes when people least expect it. Thank you for those that comment and nice emails. I would like to have good discussions on this site, so please feel free to comment and give your insights. Good night all and Happy New Year.

Well, to most people it looked like just another uneventful, holiday trading day. However, there were some strong moves in some sectors, especially for those that own SRS. A lot of bad retail news circulated the media today, as analysts begin to evaluate holiday retail sales and predict their future performance for 2009. And most everyone agrees, it does not look good. Even though we have been discussing this principle here for months, it seems as if it is now beginning to hit the market again as almost every big commercial REIT got slammed today, having SRS end up over 10% today. This should be just the beginning.


As for me, I plan on steering clear of almost every type of retailer you can think other than discount retailers like Wal Mart or Old Navy. The projected numbers don't look good, and we seem to have a trend of performing worse than expectations lately. At the end of October, ICSC (International Council of Shopping Centers) forecasted 6,100 stores closing in 2008 and 3,200 stores closing in the first half of 2009. This was before big retailers such as Circuit City, Office Max and a few others announced their mass closings. I'm sure this forecast has been revised since then. Mind you, these are national retailers and do not factor the mom and pop retailers that will also be going dark. In fact, I attended the ICSC national conference this past year in Las Vegas and it was pretty dead. All of the retailers said they were done expanding for 2008 and probably most for 2009. Many of the booths were empty and, frankly, aside from losing money at the tables, there wasn't much to talk about.

Some have asked me why I focus so much on retailer's performance. Aside from actually tracking their stock performance, retailers are the life and blood to shopping center owners. As they go down, so does the real estate. With the ammount of leverage that has been placed on these conduit loans, just losing 10% of your tenants can put you in the red. So the fate of retailers are very much tied to the fate of SRS and even financial etfs such as SKF and FAZ. As these properties will most likely be given back to the bank, a new round of bailouts will be need to cover the billions of dollars of outstanding loans that are coming due. Our greedy leverage is going to kill the US for the next few years.

So I continue to be bullish on SRS. Also, another good stock to watch that I received a tip from a reader is XRT. It is a retail etf fund which seems to be moving a bit more stable with the market, for those who have become skittish with the Proshares etfs (I have not). Using a put on XRT could be coming up very soon for me.

I still can't find many reasons to buy long here in the short term other than some commodities. GDX, SLVR, DIG(or other oil etfs), and POT are ones on my radar if I have to eventually go long. Financials scare me to death as I feel they have a whole new disease to deal with when commercial loans hit their books. Why do you think they're still not lending?

Anyway, like we expected volume should continue to stay low until after the new year. People may begin to slowly drag themselves back into the office this week, but I am not expecting much. I am excited to get volume back in this market and see where it takes us. Bear tendencies have definitely returned to the market and should continue for a bit longer. Aside from Obama's inauguration, I don't see a lot left to spark buying for a while.

I hope everyone had a good weekend. Thanks for the comments about Lending Club. I also got some emails verifying that returns in the teens had been reached with their initial investment returned. That's the key, getting back what you put in. Nine out of ten people seemed to have something positive to say, so thats pretty good, in my mind. So I think I am planning on allocating some funds there, nothing big at first, to see if I can get myself some 10%+ returns. Everything counts. Have a good night, Happy Trading and we'll see you tomorrow.

Well, we ended early today with a pretty uneventful day as we saw just a bit of Christmas Eve cheer to end the market up about .58%. So instead of talking about the few things that happened today, I thought I would take a peak into the future and give you my top 10 stocks for 2009. Most of these will be dealing with the first part of 2009, as I feel there could be some serious profits made on both the short and long side. If you are without an account, you can open one with free monthly trades at Zecco.com. So without further adieu, I give you my top 10 stocks.

1. SRS - SRS has taken a huge beating the past month as banks gained ground with bailout news and government intervention. Being involved in commercial real estate, I have a good knowledge of what is going on out there. The debt that is due the next two years is substantially larger than the residential we've already had problems with. With more retailers going BK next year, I can't see how SRS won't do well.

2. GDX - Although it may take a bit to get jump started, I have loved gold since it hit its recent lows. Our next problem will be inflation, when we figure out our bank problems, especially if we keep printing money like we are with a 0% discount rate.

3. FXP - Like SRS, FXP has also taken a beating the past month. Next year, as this recession plays deeper into the consumer, it should hurt exporting nations severely. Especially with the huge workforce in China and the building turmoil, I expect to see some serious interior rioting and government instability.

4. DIG - Like GDX, this may take a bit to find it's ground, but oil is acting much like a pendulum. It was pushed up into ridiculous prices earlier in the year when prices we're creeping to $200 a barrel. Now, it has been oversold as it lowers into the $30's. My guess is oil should be trading at around $75 a barrel and should stabilize there in 2009. It may take some time, but DIG should definitely get some love as it moves back up.

5. TBT - This ETF shorts the Lehman Treasury 20+. US Treasuries have been extremely overbought, as investors have lost a lot of confidence in the market. As a result, the returns on treasuries have hit pretty much 0%. I expect a serious retreat from treasuries in 2009 which should bear well for TBT.

6. VZ - This is my cash flow stock. Verizon has a great balance sheet with great market share for their sector. They also have a great dividend. They have proven to remain resilient during this tumultuous market. Although I don't expect huge gains from them, they act as my buffer and I still like VZ in 2009.

7. AAPL - Apple has taken a pretty strong beating these past two weeks due to some downgrades. The fact of the matter is, yes I believe tech will struggle more next year, but I believe Apple should lead the pack. With the amount of cash they have sitting in the bank, coupled with their extremely innovative product line, I can't see them remaining below $100 for too long. I know so much hinges on Jobbs health, but I think he can hold on for a few years.

8. YHOO - I think a buyout is imminent. And whether it is Microsoft or someone else, Yahoo's current stock price is way to tempting for a hostile takeover. E-commerce is on many company's radar for the future, and what better engine to lead you into it than Yahoo. I think it should take a quick pop soon as soon as someone can get financing to buy these guys out.

9. VMW - This was one of the most hyped stocks when it was publicly offered, shooting above $100 the first day of offering. Now, it has fizzled its way down to below $20 territory. Sure, they have had problems with management and competitors, but their technology and market share remains the same and as they integrate their technology with mobile phones and other devices, I see some serious upside for them in the future.

10. EEV - The explanation for this buy is much like the one for FXP. Emerging markets are a great buy when every country is buying. However, during a global crisis, everyone tries to keep things in house. I see some good profits from EEV.

So there they are. Mind you that some are long positions that I may not take until 2nd or 3rd quarter 2009, but I believe the upside is there. I still feel some of the above listed will continue to lose value, I just think they have the most upside for 2009 at their current levels. I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas, or any other holiday you are celebrating. Have a great evening, Happy Trading.