Showing posts with label SandP trends. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SandP trends. Show all posts

New S&P Technicals

S&P TrendsMarkets have had quite the rebound this week, being up over 4% just this week. Technicals and new key resistance points are moving with the market and we are beginning to see some interesting charts.

Intel helped markets rise by a very favorable earnings report, which I believe will set the mood for much of tech. Many analysts were pessimistic about Intel's performance, but they proved many wrong. So what will this entail for Apple when they report. Let's just say I think they are going to have a very good month.

Yum brand's stock fell today due to weak guidance and disappointing earnings for the fast food giant. They do say that they are beginning to see recovery in the US and that they see great revenue growth potential internationally in some of their new emerging markets, like China. However, the public was sold as their stock closed down.

Key S&P technicals are being formed as you can see from the rooftop chart above. New crucial technical points are a break at 1103. Even strong would be a break at 1129, which would most likely quickly put bears back into hibernation. We will see if investors are able to crack these new thresholds. If so, watch out. Happy Trading. (Chart from slopeofhope.com)

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Is The S&P Peaking?

S&P levelingAs anticipated, markets remained rather flat for most of the day, that is until a big swarm of selling hit markets with about an hour left of trading to close the Dow over 100 points in the negative. I was a bit surprised by the aggressive move, especially after such a flat day, but the "nervous" end of day selling continues to show the uneasiness of investors. Accompanied with the selling, was significantly more volume than we have seen on buying days.

There still remains a lot of talk about last Thursday's fluke crash. Many analysts are still trying to prove that indeed the drop was almost all related to technology flaws and that there was no "real" selling motivation. That statement is rubbish and, in fact, Thursday's big drop is matching perfectly with technical signs of "topping off" for the S&P.

As you can see from the graph above, the trend almost exactly mimics a topping curve. From the recent highs to Thursdays low, there was about a 12% drop in the S&P. That downward "whip" is the largest contributors to index leveling. Now when we evaluate other data, we see that they too match a level off formation.

If the market is indeed leveling, what we can expect in the short term is a bit of a rally back to recent highs and maybe even beyond a bit. However, following that, markets tend to respond with more frequent "whips" in the market, sending the S&P down even further. Of course, this is speculation based on charts, but the percentages state that indeed the S&P is leveling off. If this does become the case, Thursday's crash was just a warning to investors that the market is sucking wind.

Consumer confidence continues to struggle. In a large, national media poll conducted, it was reported that over 75% of consumers feel that we are still in a recession? Really? But everyone is saying we are done. The government, CNBC, Tom Hanks, and Cramer are all saying we are out of the recession. So how can this be? This is because, the consumer continues to suffer. Home prices are still declining, health care and energy prices continue to rise, taxes are increasing, and disposable income is still shrinking. In this type of environment, consumers will continue to be on their guard and not be so easily fooled by inflated earnings or a "ra ra" speech from Cramer.

Friday should be interesting. I'm sure market movers did not like that selling close today. Lately, Friday's have been trending on the sell side, however, often we see open with a bit of a buying spike, only to trail down by the end of the day. Once again, I plan on entering some short positions early morning if this is the case. I will be exiting these positions by close, only to pick up some longs just before close. Lately, it has almost become automatic that Mondays open green. Of course, I am a bit worried of weekend news in relation to the debt turmoil in Europe, however, I will maintain strict stop losses and roll the dice a bit. Happy Trading.

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S&P Peaking

S&P Trends reportAfter a pretty moderate trading day on Friday, Monday looked to open up the week on the downside, that is until the Dow conveniently rallied for over 50 points during the last thirty minutes of trading. The fact that most of this recent rebound from February's lows have been done with mostly really low volume poses a lot of questions, which we'll talk more about later.

We're in a very critical state in the markets right now. We are hovering gently over January's highs, but are not "bursting through", which is usually the case when entering another run up in the markets. The float-like movement would usually indicate that the index is oversold at the point, especially when these technicals were beaten on a Friday, in which markets usually heavily reward new thresholds. However, during trading this past Friday, this was not the case.

The newest free video released from MarketTrends (check it out, a great video), in my opinion, explains the recent movement of the S&P quite well, while also giving some projections of where we might be heading in the near future. Most of you know that I have been expecting a rather strong pullback for a while now, so this is no surprise to me. In fact, China's Premier warned about the possibility of a "double dip" recession, due to financial system's risk as well as increasing unemployment problems. Many of our domestic economists refute this notion, saying the worst is well behind us. We will know who is correct in the next few months.

The US dollar is gaining some strength right now, due to expectations of a change with the Fed. Many are expecting the flow of the dollar to get tightened shortly, as the Fed has made it clear of its intentions to raise rates here in the near term. UUP continues to be performing well for me, however, at this point, I am beginning to look for an exit. You usually get the best of the run during the anticipation of the news.

From watching the video you will see that this week can be a very telling week for markets and should start to show more direction of where we're heading in the long term. Low volume trading is a big condition slowing my desire to trade more at this point, however, that volume cannot stay low for much longer. Happy Trading.

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