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The Election Stock Market
Posted On Wednesday, September 12, 2012 at at 9:22 AM by Finance Fanatic
This election, more so than past, especially has created a debate among Wall Street as to how the market will respond. Most energy and manufacturing prefer Obama. Investment and banks want Romney. Either way, whomever does get elected is sure to cause some volatility in the markets for a short time. This should stabilize going into 2013.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, there are still 3 main economic factors that success in equity markets hinge on. They are:
EUROPE HANGS ON
Many believe that credit turmoil in Europe has already been factored into our markets. I strongly disagree. We continue to prove that we make investment decisions in a very "reactionary" process. If credit defaults began to occur in Europe, you better believe this will hit home and strong. There is nothing worse for the US than a big reminder of what carrying a lot of debt can do to an economy. To keep a favorable trading market, we need Europe to hang on.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The topic that is on everyone's mind, except that it has been the topic of political discussion. There is a reason why both candidates focus so much on it. There is not a more influential stat that is reported than the Unemployment rate. Most people can't tell you what our GDP growth was this past quarter, what the Treasuries are trading at, or even what current interest rates are at. However, most know the current national unemployment rate. It's all fun and games until you lose your job... This directly effects investor sentiment. We have been slowly pecking away at it, but we need some acceleration. This last month, we saw a drop in the rate, but only because of people actual "leaving the workforce" and no longer looking for work. We added less than 100,000 new jobs, which won't cut it. Unemployment is the weight dragging behind market momentum, continually slowing it.
ACTION FROM THE FED
Time and time again we see the Fed pop in just when things are about to get real scary. After the most recent employment report, reports have been buzzing with the rumors of another stimulus in the works. Despite what the outcome of the stimulus might be, history has proven that markets love a stimulus. Though it may be short lived, we usually enjoy a nice little bump across the board.
This season of trading will keep you on your toes. The election is looking to be a close one and many are sitting back and waiting, including Wall Street. Keep your tabs on the above influences as they can greatly sway markets one way or the other. Happy Trading.
The election over its time to move on.
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The Election Stock Market (ESM) is an interactive tool designed to predict future election results and forecast stock market reactions. The ESM offers investors a chance to bet on the outcome of various races across the country, as well as gauge investor sentiment regarding political issues. By predicting the outcomes of elections and analyzing market data, the ESM can provide investors with valuable insight into the potential direction of the markets.
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The 2012 US Presidential election was one of the most watched political events in history, with millions of people across the world tuning in to see who would be crowned as the 44th President of the United States. It was also a major event on Wall Street, with the Election Stock Market (ESM) predicting the outcome based on stocks and other indicators. The ESM was established in 1988 and has accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since then, making it a popular tool for traders looking to capitalize on the results of the election.
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