Subscribe RSS Feed
Unemployment Anxiety
Posted On Thursday, September 3, 2009 at at 9:04 PM by Finance Fanatic
I apologize for the missed post yesterday. I am attending the ICSC West Coast real estate conference and have been preoccupied with hearing about the destruction of commercial real estate happening all around the country. The media can say whatever they want, but coming from the horse's mouth, there are some dark, dark days awaiting the commercial real estate market.
After two rather strong days of selling which we saw on Tuesday and Wednesday, the market was able to bounce back slightly today by having the Dow end up a bit over 60 points. However, the trading was mixed throughout the day and did spend some of the day in the red. The green day today does not dispute the probable trend of a turn around at this point, especially when you consider that higher volume levels have accompanied selling in recent trading days.
Everybody anxiously awaits the employment numbers being released tomorrow. Best case scenario, is that the number comes in around the 200,000 jobless mark, which in that case, the market would most likely cheer. However, when you think of how discouraging that number really is and that the unemployment market continues to lose jobs at such a violent level, it makes it hard to cheer about anything. Also, keep in my mind that we are going into a holiday weekend, which usually makes investors nervous to hold investments over the long weekend. On the flip side, volume will most likely remain low, due to traveling, which could prime the market for large market manipulation to push their weight around. I expect the unemployment number to be the main decision maker of where we head. I don't see a lot of optimism for September as year end pressures begin to pile up. Oh yea, and redemptions...Happy Trading,
I work in the prime brokerage arm of one of the top investment banks in europe and we see huge volumes of subscriptions the last few months. cash is finding its way back into hedge funds so what redemptions are you talking bout.
Hedge funds in US have a tendency to make profits by selling assets before September settlement to avoid tax works. It usually caused September downturn. I think FF's redemption means this liquidation.
well these are jus theories spun by the media. unfortunately there are not many who truely understand the workings of hedge funds and appreciate the various strategies.
oh and watch for the chinese government propping up the mkts into their national day celebrations.
I agree with you Mcballs. Thee guys have missed the bottom and are now crying. Any attempt to crash this market by bears has been followed by a lot of new cash flow to the market. I am actually using this strategy for my retirement account. I buy when there is significant sell off and I am up by a lot. It has never failed so far. I have no respect for shorts who are the cause of all the stock market crash last year. It is as if you have a house, and someone borrows your house and sells it for you and then the price drops. This market is really manipulated by shorts both ways, shorting to death and then covering to death! I also short SRS anytime it rallies making a lot of money. Shorts deserve to lose their shirts and I am totally happy with it.
FF,
I need a bit of advice from you. Based on your wise suggestions, I have been holding my SRS since last year (100's) and kept averaging down. My average is now at $29. What is your target price on that? Should I still hold it? Thanks.
Kyle
FF,
If you are sure about such a miserable outlook on the markets, why don't you sell your stocks in our IRA, do profit taking and then buy back? Or, if you believe we will eventually recover, why don't you join the bulls and be patient with your long investments?
Thanks
Kye, I do hope the $$ u pumped into SRS are dollars u can afford to lose. you have my sympathy but most often trading is best learnt the hard way. Do your own research, sharpen your own investment and risk management methodology, then formulate a sound trading plan of your own. Never rely on "tips". Good luck
McBalls,
Kyle's comment more looked like a joke to me. I couldn't stop laughing. If I had a lot of money, I would short all leveraged ETFs together.
Well anon, if that is the way you trade then good luck to you too.
Unemployment will continue to be a big problem.