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A Week of Bull
Posted On Monday, July 13, 2009 at at 4:41 PM by Finance Fanatic
Well, markets opened up very strong on Monday, led by financials, as we saw the Dow close up over 180 points. Interesting enough, after just one day of rather strong buying, many are already believing this is the beginning of the next gap up. Many bulls believed that a significant pull back was needed to build a base for the next buying wind, and that the past two-three weeks was just that. Last week especially, seemed to favor only the bears, but this week it's the bulls that have the head start.
Although I firmly stand as a bear in our current economy, I do consider a new buying leg a possibility, a small one, but a possibility. As I have said in many of the posts, earnings is the key to the next market direction. Today, everyone showed that they are banking on very strong profits from banks, hence the big gains from financials today. Goldman Sachs reports tomorrow, which is the clean up batter for banks. Goldman has a very good possibility of hitting earnings out of the park, which in turn could spark yet another rally for banks. However, I am not so sure other banks are nearly as well off as GS.
If we indeed see another blow-up in financials tomorrow, I will be purchasing several December ending FAS put contracts. Many will feel that the "bar" will be set for financials by Goldman's report, however, it will be more like the ceiling. Goldman is their home run hitter, and I don't feel it will get any better than their report. I think the honeymoon for financials will be very short lived.
Also, tomorrow there are several big companies reporting earnings in the morning, that I think will set the tone for trading at least the rest of this week, if not the quarter. If we see some big crushing of earnings tomorrow, I believe we will find ourselves back in a tug of war, or even worse, a bit of a rally. At any rate, I don't expect these things to last and I definitely do not feel that we are out of the woods in regards to this recession. We will learn a lot from tomorrows trading and I will be most likely making numerous trades in my Zecco.com account.. I will keep you posted, especially on the premium podcast (subscribe here). Happy Trading.
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