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Sellers Win Despite Hard Fought Battle With Hedge Funds
Posted On Tuesday, November 11, 2008 at at 3:12 PM by ChrisThey fought, and they fought hard. For any of you that have level two and three trading capabilities probably know what I'm talking about. Several times throughout the day we saw strong influxes of buying (my guess from Hedge Funds) trying to get the market in the green...And they almost succeeded. The fact that we are continuing to remain in the red during redemptions week should show the lack of consumer optimism for today's market.
We saw a good bounce in FXP today, closing over 10%. That should at least give some breath of life back to those like me that bought some shares in the low 90's. Just remember, this is a volatile, risky ETF. PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK! I personally, having played and tracked this ETF for a while now, have a lot of confidence in it. One thing to keep in mind is there are talks of the Chinese government to begin to take stakes in certain Chinese companies. Announcements like these would most likely attract another emotional push in the Chinese markets, but as I have said before, they usually don't last long. This is all just talk, but it is something to keep in mind for those contemplating trading this ETF. I have accepted that we will most likely be up and down for the next couple of months, and then we should see FXP hopefully kick it into gear in December or January. All you have to do is turn on the news to hear the next bad thing happening.
I am straying away from energy stocks at the moment. Two of Tontine's larger hedge funds will be liquidated, which consist mostly of energy and coal. This should provide a saturation of the energy markets for the next while. These are just a taste of the many hedge funds we will probably see liquidated in the near future.
TJ Max was the lucky recipient of lower than expected earnings today, however, they didn't move much today. Congress meets next week to discuss the GM dilemma. I believe there is no way the government will let GM go bankrupt. If they were to allow them go under, this could be something that would cause the market to capitulate. Many analysts believe GM bonds are a good buy for this reason. If they end up getting help, we could see strength back to their stock. I don't plan on playing GM, because I would rather play stocks that rally as a result of a lack of government intervention.
For Tomorrow, it's kind of a toss up. I could see us having a green day as a result of some major hedge fund buying. If Asia reacts negatively to today's market than we could see another day in the red, so keep your eye on that. If we are indeed down again, I am going to look at buying some GDX options around $22 or $23, expiring in April. UYG has also taken a beating and I may go in and buy some $10 or $11 options expiring in April. I have been looking for enough red days to buy up some long options just as a short term hedge for this weird November. My goal is to completely be out of long by mid December. I would like to see FXP reach $100-$110 here shortly to pocket some profits, but I am also ok with being in it for a longer term. I'm sure all the FXPers had a good day today. I don't see a lot of green in the near future, but with government always looking to make a new bailout announcement, you never know. Happy Trading and we'll see you tomorrow.
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